LULUCF in 2011 - Guest Commentary in Point Carbon

--the following appeared as a guest commentary in Carbon Market Europe, Thomson Reuters Point Carbon on February 25, 2011--

Closing the deal on forest accounting
By Chris Henschel, national manager of boreal conservation, Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society

Mark it on your calendar: the UN climate change conference in South Africa this December will deliver an agreement on the accountability of industrialised countries for their emissions from forest management and other land uses (LULUCF).

Under current Kyoto rules, accounting for emissions for most land use activities is voluntary, potentially undermining the effectiveness of national emission reduction targets. Countries have been discussing and negotiating possible changes to the framework for three and a half years.

The only obvious outcome from December’s UN negotiations in Cancun was a decision to continue applying the same deinitions and guiding principles. Most LULUCF negotiators had felt that a deal was within reach and the lack of a full agreement on LULUCF was a signal that LULUCF has some outstanding political issues. Arguably the most important outcome of the meeting was an explicit recognition that the eventual LULUCF rules chosen would impact the attainment of more ambitious targets and that this impact must be understood. This leaves the door open wider for well-informed LULUCF choices consistent with the broader aims of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

One of the central unresolved issues of the negotiations has been on the baseline that will be used to account for changes in emissions from forest management. This issue is fundamental because the determination of whether emissions have gone up or down depends entirely on where the baseline is set.

Most industrialised countries have said they want to set their own emissions ‘reference level’ and most have set theirs to be above historical levels. Parties agreed in Cancun to invite submissions and subject them to expert review. Although no decision has been taken to adopt the ‘reference level’ approach, the industrialised nations will be loathe to throw it out completely after investing effort in the review process.

The only option on the table that would make use of this is the ‘baseline’ approach set out by the African group, which would merge the proposed reference levels with a historical average, thereby increasing responsibility for emissions growth.

It would appear that only a major political re-orientation could steer a Durban outcome away from one of these two options.

A related issue that is not yet resolved is whether any cap or limit should be placed on the credits or debits resulting from the chosen forest management accounting approach.

It would be surprising if certain outcomes were not ultimately accepted after the informal discussions and accommodations that took place in Cancun:

• A new activity is likely to be added to the LULUCF mix: “rewetting and drainage.” This activity is meant to capture the impact on emissions of draining and restoring (re-wetting) peatlands.
• Countries likely will be able to account for carbon stored in wood products using default half-lives for paper, wood panels and saw wood. All wood product carbon in landfill will be treated on the basis of instantaneous oxidation to avoid a perverse incentive to dispose of wood.
• There seems a good chance that a mechanism will be developed to allow countries to limit the impact of emissions from extraordinary occurrences like fires beyond their control. The main outstanding issue here is the threshold of emissions that would trigger such a mechanism.
• If all the outstanding issues related to forest management are resolved, it is expected to become mandatory for a Kyoto second commitment period.
• Activities other than forest management will continue to be accounted for as they currently are, and will likely remain voluntary without a concerted political push for greater accountability.

The latest thinking on how to treat all of these issues can be seen in chapter 2 of the most recent ‘Revised proposal from the Chair’ in Cancun (FCCC/KP/AWG/2010/CRP.4/Rev.4 – Chapter II).

One large additional question that crept over the horizon in Cancun and will continue to rise in prominence in 2011: will these approaches, developed for use by industrialised nations, also be applied to developing countries in the context of negotiations falling under reduced deforestation (Redd+)? References to LULUCF in the Convention negotiating track suggest an increased blurring of the line keeping these issues separate. The fate of the Kyoto Protocol and the outcome of the ‘legal question’ about the binding nature of an agreement in South Africa may also have profound implications for the relevance of the LULUCF rules and to whom they will apply.

The Cancun Deal

The president of the conference has produced a draft decision text that is receiving rave reviews from country after country in the plenary. The Mexican presidency is being praised for its transparency, adeptness and openness and for producing a decision that has package between the two negotiating tracks (something until now elusive).

It is clearly lacking in ambition and by no means is the end result that is needed. But all are hailing it as the lifeline that was required to re-instill confidence in the process and the foundation for a path forward.

The outcome on LULUCF and the forestry negotiations is better than I expected earlier in the week. There are three key elements of this outcome for me:
* There was no agreement to lock in the logging loophole (reference levels);
* There is an acknowledgment of loopholes and of the need to consider their impacts on targets and ambition;
* Options to the reference levels persist in the text for next year.

Other details:
- The guiding principles from the Marrakesh Accords continue to govern the framework
- The same definitions still apply
- A decision on whether to have a cap on credits/debits and how to exclude emissions from force majeure events (i.e. extreme fire years)will be decided in time for next December
- Parties' proposed reference levels were inscribed in an appendix, but no final decision was made to account using these
- The submission, review and replacement process for reference levels was agreed
- No other decisions on substantive matters were made (e.g. accounting for emissions from other activities, how to account for wood products, etc.)

One other outcome to note is that the negotiators came to an informal agreement on how to define and create a new activity for peatland management ('draining and re-wetting'). I suspect this didn't come into the final decision because many other issues couldn't, but it appears it is ready to formally decide next year.

Next year will be interesting...

Africa Propose Compromise

I should apologize to anyone whose appetite I whet the other day with the teaser about a proposal from the African Group that I haven't followed-up sooner. It's been very busy here as always.

The proposal is a compromise that modifies the reference level approach by combining it with a historical average of data from the first commitment period. This proposal would cut the logging loophole in the second commitment period roughly in half while still giving all Annex I Parties at least part of the ‘break’ on emissions they have been looking for. It’s only a partial fix with its own short-comings, but it is an interesting compromise that could hold some promise for a deal in Cancun, if developed countries are really looking for one.

My sense is that they are not. They feel to close to getting everything they have been asking with the logging loophole.

I should also tell you that things are very much up in the air on the LULUCF negotiations in general.

The Ministers have arrived but without at manageable text on LULUCF for them to work with. There is an extra informal (closed door meeting) tomorrow morning to try to come to some agreement on the text that will be given to Ministers. The key oustanding question is still how Tuvalu's new proposal to go back to the old rules (with some tweaks) will be incorporated.

The best thing about the Tuvalu proposal was the requirement for countries to have to account for any conversion of forests to plantations or primary forests to secondary!

Logistics at Cancun Climate Talks Reflect Commitment to Reduce Emissions

The Cancun climate talks kicked off today. One of the venues is a brand-new convention centre. The other is an upscale golf course and spa. Both have bone-chilling AC (and wide open doors). The many thousands of participants are all bused an hour or more from their hotels in the morning and back again in the evening. The emissions boggle the mind.

The logistics show the same lack of regard for emissions as is evidenced in forestry negotiations and the broader negotiations toward a new global climate deal.

At the end of day one, I'm looking for some inspiration and signs of hope!

Last Chance: The Road to Cancun

I am back home in beautiful Ottawa looking out my window at the colours that make autumn so special in Canada. This beauty is in sharp relief to the thick smog the bus drove through on the way to the Beijingairport on Sunday.

The closing plenary in Tianjin showed that there is still hope for a better outcome to the forestry negotiations. Both the Africa Group (all African countries) and the Association of Small Island States spoke out strongly against the logging loophole: they both rejected the approach of using "projected reference levels" from the future to account for forestry emissions. This resistance and insistence on environmental integrity is important. Although developed countries may not want to take heed of this, we will do our best to make sure they do.

In the next seven weeks before the decision-making meeting in Cancun, I will be working with my colleagues to continue pushing for a strong outcome: campaigning, public outreach, communications and exploring compromises that have environmental integrity. We are in the final stretch.

In the meantime, I will be working to ensure that domestic policies and meausures for forests and climate change are up to snuff!

Bonn Climate Talks Part 8: The Chorus Grows

On Day 7 of the talks, the chorus is steadily growing to transform the forestry accounting framework with a goal to reduce emissions. The following countries have now all made public statements in supporting this goal:

• The African Group (53 countries);
• COMIFAC - the Central African Forest Commission (10 Central African countries);
• The Coalition of Rainforest Nations (13 countries in Africa, Caribbean, Central America and South America);
  
• India.
  

By contrast, developed countries continue to obfuscate with talk of 'proper incentives' and 'business-as-usual' management.

It becomes more and more clear each day that the "projection of forest management activities" in a country's baseline is absolutely foolhardy:

• it hides increased net emissions;
• it is based on unverifiable assumptions;
• it leads to wild inconsistency in baselines between countries.

In a negotiating session today on 'the numbers' - i.e. countries' overall targets to reduce emissions, several developed countries made it clear that they will only move to the upper end of the range of emission reductions they have offered if they get the LULUCF loopholes they seek. In this context, moving to the upper range becomes totally meaningless.

Closed-door negotiations resume again tomorrow and there will be three sessions in total this week.

Bonn Climate Talks Part 5: LULU Chefs Decry Logging Loopholes

Participants in the climate change negotiations were greeted this morning by the "LULU Chefs," who were demanding that the logging loophole be closed in the negotiations on LULUCF (Land use, land-use change and forestry).

The fun demonstration by tcktcktck was put on to keep attention on the issue as governments met for a closed-door session today, discussing the emission accounting rules for forestry. Our campaign is having a visible effect on the negotiations as countries are paying much more attention and seem to be taking our concerns more seriously than in the past.

This is the most active and volatile area of the negotiations here. From hour to hour we hear different accounts of what's going on and the deals that may be made. It's frustrating to have to fish for information and get partial accounts of what's going on. It's easy to make hasty judgments so it's important to be careful to have all the information. Today were learned that developing countries proposed a review process to make sure that the choice of forestry emission baselines by industrialized countries is transparent.

We continue to insist that emissions must be reduced from forestry and land use. Nothing else makes sense in the context of a climate agreement. Some countries definitely support this goal but how this support is translated into action in the broader political context is always uncertain. We will meet with many countries tomorrow to continue making our case.

There will be another round of closed negotiations tomorrow followed by an open session on Saturday where developments from the week will be aired in public.

Bonn Climate Talks Part 4: Chorus to close loophole grows

Everything seemed to change today. Whereas yesterday it felt very unclear whether we would have the chance to close the logging loophole, today I feel much more confident.

A number of important things happened:

• The Chairs of the negotiations have confirmed that there will be an opportunity for substantive negotiations here;
• The coalition of African countries (the Africa Group) formally spoke out in their official intervention in favour of reducing emissions from forestry in developed countries;
• The Central African Nations pointed out in their formal intervention the many flaws in the proposed forestry rules for developed countries and highlighted the discrepency between the rigor that is expected of developing countries wanting support to reduce deforestation and the free-for-all approach being proposed by wealthy nations for themselves;

I take all these things as signs that there will be a chance to address our serious concerns with the draft forestry rules. We are not alone.

It is also clear from speaking to people that our message about the 400 Mt loophole for forestry is getting out and reaching high places. Hopefully we will see that translate into pressure to solve the problem within the technical negotiations.

You can watch my friend and colleague Sean Cadman make the case at the Climate Action Network media conference today.

(You can also watch him laughing at me while filming my video blog)

Bonn Climate Talks Part 3: No Clarity on Forestry Negotiations

On day one of the Bonn Climate Talks, there is no clarity on what will unfold within the forestry negotiations.

Depending on who you talk to the rules are a done deal, there's time to fix them, there's no time to fix them, there's time to go deeper into the data and assumptions, we can change the text, we can't change the text, there will be a political deal, there will be no deal...!

We are meeting with the Chair of the negotiations under the Kyoto Protocol tomorrow, so we will get straight from him what his strategy is for the meeting.

In the meantime, we have starting meeting with heads of country delegations here and expressing our concern that we need a high-level political fix to the forestry emissions loophole. We are at least getting recognition of the problem. We will have many more meetings throughout the week, including with the heads of the European Union's delegations tomorrow.

Finally, we are breaking into the mainstream media with two great stories today, one at length about the forestry emissions loophole, the other highlighting it as one of many problems that need to be solved.

What happened to forests at Copenhagen??

No one seems quite sure yet what the implications of the Copenhagen Accord will be. It is a three-age political agreement between six Heads of State (U.S., Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Maldives) that is vague on ambition and lacking any legally binding nature.

A big question is what happens to the draft legal agreements that nations of the UN had been working on for the past two years to extend the Kyoto Protocol and bring in the US and support developing countries? The official UN mandate for countries to work on these legally-binding agreements has been extended, but will they ever be finalized now that there is a new, loosey-goosey game in town? Just today news came out that Australia, Canada and Papua New Guinea have chosen to associate themselves with the Accord.

This uncertainty extends to provisions for developed countries to account for emissions from forestry (LULUCF) and the creation of a new mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation in developing countries (REDD). The Copenhagen Accord recognizes the need to establish a REDD mechanism, but does not do so.

The Accord is totally silent on forestry emissions in developed countries - the negotiations on this topic were cut short when Heads of State arrived. In some sense this was a good thing because they were headed in the wrong direction: every developed country would be allowed to increase their forestry emissions without any penalty, as long as emissions didn't increase more than predicted.

Environmental groups staged a good fight against this idea in Copenhagen - in favour of Making Forests Count and against the logging loophole. We also proposed a very fair basis of accounting: account for all changes in forestry emissions relative to a historical average using all existing data that has been provided to the UN(from 1990 - 2007). Some champions emerged, notably France, who challenged the EU to take a position with environmental integrity.

I would say that we can still win this fight except, as I've said, it's not entirely clear there is still a fight to be won - will there be a new Kyoto agreement on forestry accounting rules? Will there be a Kyoto beyond 2012. The answer to both these questions must be yes if we are to have a fair, ambitious and legally-binding global agreement to tack climate change... but the next few months will tell whether that is in the cards.

Forests Won't Count in Copenhagen - but we will make them count in 2010!

The talks in Copenhagen have been a mess the last few days. The Danish Presidency appears to have been way over its head and seems to have badly handled its role, failing to capitalize on the largest ever gathering of World leaders. The lack of ambition from most of those leaders from rich nations didn't help.

The leaders held talks late into the night that President Lula from Brazil described as an experience that leaders shouldn't be subjected to. He expressed his frustration and said an Angel needed to descend to give them the intelligence that they are missing.

It was one of a series of speeches given by leaders to try to breathe some momentum back into the process. But Lula was followed by what must be the worst speech of Obama's life. It lacked ambition and broadcast a willingness to move from their current inadequate position.

The focus now is on agreeing to a three-page political declaration; the legal texts that have been worked on for the past two years apparently tossed aside, or at least to the side. It's not clear what if any status they will have.

The declaration has an appropriate long-term global emission reduction target (50% by 2050) but developed countries' short-term emission reduction target by 2020 (from 1990 levels) is X.

The meaning of X will largely determine whether this conference is a success or a failure.

The casting aside of the legal texts means that the rules for forestry emissions accounting will not be settled here. There will be no decision to make forests count in Copenhagen, not in developed countries anyway. On the positive side, this means that we have more time to get the loopholes out. Climate Action Network proposed a very reasonable basis for accounting here - account for all changes in emissions from a historical level, defined as the average level of emissions from 1990 - 2007.

The current forestry accounting rules have a shelf-life. They must be replaced or reaffirmed for the second commitment period. So it is reasonable to assume that we will pick up where we left off next year...

...and there is good news too: many people have stepped up to make forests count:

• Over 3000 people signed the make forests count petition;
  
• France took up the rallying cry with passion, rallying other European countries to the cause, and;
• We found common ground with the G77 and China, who are looking for environemntal integrity in accounting for logging emissions.

Copenhagen may well end up being a failure; but we are in a good position to make forests count in 2010.

Update on the Logging Loophole in Copenhagen

Not much has happened out in the open the last couple of days in the forestry emissions talks at Copenhagen. The formal discussions have been suspended over a larger dispute about how talks under the Kyoto Protocol should continue.

But this does result in the opportunity to talk to delegates. I spoke to a number of government delegates today to get their sense of where things are going. And we (the ENGOs) are working on ideas to turn things around next week.

We did hear that the issue of the logging loophole was not specifically discussed at the EU summit yesterday; it was deemed to be too complicated and too late to put on the agenda. But France's position remains clear and they continue to forge ahead.

Their position of using a historical baseline to account for emissions from forest management for all of the EU is right in line with the demands of the environmental community. Watch for an update to the Make Forests Count Scorecard (Henschel Rating)!
- you will see France break apart from the EU's thumbs down!

Tomorrow is a day of rest for the negotiations, but of course the enviros take the whole day to plan their strategy! No rest for the green!!

French Government Makes Forests Count!

France jumped way out in front in the campaign to Make Forests Count today!

In a very bold environmental move, the French climate Ambassador Brice Lalonde served notice to the rest of the European Union that it would be opposing the EU's current position in support of a logging loophole in the Copenhagen Climate Agreement that would allow countries to hide increased emissions from logging, thereby weakening their targets.

France's proposal is for the EU to agree to collectively account for all changes in emissions in its forests since 1990 - the year for which all other sectors are measured. The EU member states that have argued this would result in too many emissions on their books would be helped by sharing the 'burden' of these impacts across all EU countries. France has specifically stepped up to shoulder some of the burden from emissions in other countries.

France made the proposal formally tonight at an EU heads of state meeting in Brussels. If France succeeds in turning the EU's position, it would be a *huge* boost to making forests count in the Copenhagen climate agreement and remove one of the irritant loopholes that undermine real action on climate change.

I had the pleasure to sit in the conference room of the French delegation's office while Ambassador Lalonde made the statement to the press. It was very exciting because, as a colleague put it, "This is a really green move by France in an area usually filled with unrelenting cheating and gloom." This really was the most positive development in the last three years on this issue. I was even moved to congratulate the Ambassador in a French that I can only assume was considered cute rather than convincing.

The move earned France the Ray of the Day award, a new award started by the Climate Action Network at the Copenhagen Climate Conference to honour truly exceptional acts of green that push the negotiations forward.

Here's a story from AFP.

Logging Loopholes Big Enough To Drive A Logging Truck Through!!

The Logging Loophole: Developed countries want to be able to increase their logging emissions and not account for it. This weakens their overall emission reduction target - whatever countries say their targets are, they will actually be smaller because they are hiding these logging emissions from the accounts. A team of analysists working with me within the Working Group of the Climate Action Network estimate that this loophole is about the size of the total emission reduction targets of the current Kyoto Protocol! It's big (so are logging trucks)!

Forest Negotiations Begin at Bangkok Climate Change Talks

The first closed-door session on accounting rules for forests and land use is now underway at Bangkok. There will be six negotiating sessions here over the next couple of weeks. It is widely felt that negotiators will be under pressure to make real progress here - without clear rules for how forest emissions affect the compliance of developed countries with emission reduction commitments, there can be no agreement.

At the opening session yesterday, the Chair of the negotiating process under the Kyoto Protocol cited three main issues of consequence:

• How emissions from natural disturbances are dealt with;
• The overall accounting approach for forest management and whether limits need to be placed on what countries can claim;
• How carbon stored in harvested wood products are dealt with.

I have other questions: will there be a commitment to protecting reservoirs of GHGs in intact forests? Will the new rules make countries accountable or a will they create a new slush fund of credits that suit particular national circumstances?

A few parties have started posting their submissions for this session (Canada, Japan and New Zealand so far). These submissions are starting to be heavier on data, so people can see the possible implications of rule changes.